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European Review of Agricultural Economics 2008 35(2):117-141; doi:10.1093/erae/jbn023
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© Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2008; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?

Martin Banse, Hans van Meijl, Andrzej Tabeau and Geert Woltjer

LEI - Wageningen UR, The Hague

Corresponding author: Martin Banse. LEI, PO Box 29703, 2502 LS The Hague. E-mail: martin.banse{at}wur.nl

Received July 2007; final version received July 2008

This article assesses the implications of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) using a computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous land supply. The results show that, without policy intervention to stimulate the use of biofuel crops, the targets of the BFD will not be met. With the BFD, the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture globally and within Europe, leading to an increase in land use. On the other hand, the long-term declining trend in real agricultural prices may slow down or even reverse.

Keywords: biofuels, EU Biofuels Directive, agricultural markets, computable general equilibrium modelling, endogenous land supply

JEL classification: F17, Q17, Q27, Q28


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