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© 1982 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics

other

Commodity cycles as random processes*

FREDERIC L. PRYOR and FREDERICK SOLOMON

Swarthmore College Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
SUNY College at Purchase New York, U.S.A.

Received February 1, 1981; final version received March 1, 1982

Summary

Cyclical behaviours of hog production in centrally planned and market economies are shown to be quite similar in terms of variability and cycle length. A possible explanation can be made in terms of some simple models that incorporate a form of rational expectations, a lagged production function, and some particular types of random shocks. After presenting a family of such models, the special conditions linking such models to actual production behaviour are analyzed.


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