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© 1982 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics

other

Structural changes in import market shares for apples in the United Kingdom

MICHAEL ATKIN and DAVID BLADFORD

Landell Mills Commodities Studies London, U.K.
Cornell University Ithaca, U.S.A.

Received July 1, 1982; final version received October 1, 1982

Summary

Changes in the composition of U.K. apple imports during the period 1963–79 are analyzed using a first-order Markov model applied to market share data. The goodness of fit of the model indicates that changes in market share have been systematic, stable and of long duration. The estimated transitional probability matrix sheds some light on the nature of this change by indicating the relative competitive strength of different exporters. The large increase in France's market share is examined and an estimate derived of the effect of U.K. membership of the EC For the years 1978–9, the two years after transition was completed, it is estimated that EC membership increased French market share in the U.K. market by more than 26 percentage points and decreased the shares of Australia and South Africa by 18 and 10 percentage points respectively.


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