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European Review of Agricultural Economics Advance Access originally published online on November 26, 2007
European Review of Agricultural Economics 2007 34(4):517-538; doi:10.1093/erae/jbm033
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© Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2007; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Capturing structural changes in French meat and fish demand over the period 1991–2002

Olivier Allais and Véronique Nichèle

CORELA-INRA, Ivry-sur-Seine, France

Corresponding author: Olivier Allais, CORELA-INRA, 65 bd de Brandebourg, 94205 Ivry sur Seine Cedex, France. E-mail: allais{at}ivry.inra.fr

Received February 2004; Revision received September 2007. A time-varying coefficient demand system, the Markov switching almost ideal demand model, is proposed to shed new light on change over time in the structure of French meat and fish demand. The main feature of this model is that the switching mechanism from one structure of demand to the other is controlled by an unobserved variable that follows a Markov chain. Our model accurately captures the two Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crises of recent years. We estimate that the 1996 BSE crisis lasted almost three years, whereas the second BSE crisis for just lasted five 4-week periods.

Keywords: meat and fish demand, almost ideal demand model, Markov switching, BSE crisis, consumer preferences

JEL Classification: Q11, C52


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