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European Review of Agricultural Economics 2005 32(3):319-346; doi:10.1093/eurrag/jbi016
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Right arrow F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
Right arrow F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
Right arrow I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
Right arrow I38 - Government Policy; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
Right arrow O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
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© Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2005; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions{at}oupjournals.org

The European agricultural trade policies and poverty

L. Alan Winters

The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA

Corresponding author: L. Alan Winters, Development Research Group, The World Bank, 1818 H Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, USA. Email: lwinters{at}worldbank.org

Summary

This paper tries to estimate the effects of reforming European agricultural trade policy on poverty in Europe and in the developing world. After setting out a conceptual framework linking trade and poverty, it describes a detailed computable general equilibrium modelling exercise showing the effects on poverty of a possible agreement in the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization. It then conducts a global simulation on European agricultural liberalisation and by comparing it with the Doha simulations infers the poverty effects in the developing world. These are benign but not very large. This does not change the case for reform, however; the Common Agricultural Policy harms trade relations with developing countries and causes poverty in Europe.

Keywords: CAP, poverty, agricultural trade policy, CGE modelling, F17, Q17, I32


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