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© 1987 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics

research-article

A sequential decision model to determine optimal farm-level grain marketing policies

ERNST BERG

Department of Farm Management, University of Bonn Fed. Rep. of Germany

Received August 1, 1985; final version received July 1, 1986

Summary

The paper deals with the development of models to support post harvest grain marketing decisions. These multi-stage decision models compute optimal closed-loop sales policies based on subjective assessments of the probability distributions of future prices. The first approach assumes that the decision-maker is risk indifferent. Later on the model is expanded in order to maximise expected utility in order to capture risk aversion as well. The impacts of different degrees of risk aversion on the optimal policy are analysed and conclusions are drawn with respect to the model application in practical decision-making.


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