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© 1986 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics

research-article

A short-run econometric analysis of the international coffee market*

F.C. PALM and E. VOGELVANG

Department of Economics, State University Limburg, Maastricht Netherlands
Department of Economics, Free University, Amsterdam Netherlands

Received October 1, 1985; Revision received July 1, 1986.

Summary

We develop a short-run econometric model for the world coffee market and give empirical evidence on the behavioural equations of the model for the major coffee importing and exporting countries. The behavioural relationships for producers, Inventory holders, speculators and consumers are derived from optimising considerations in an uncertain environment. Spot and futures prices adjust to clear the spot and futures markets at each period. International trade flows of coffee are determined by the optimising behaviour of the agents (countries) in the model. The empirical evidence confirms our hypothesis of a highly structured model which is consistent with profit maximising behaviour under uncertainty.


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