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© 1985 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics

other

Budgetary and financial effects of the EC milk quota system

KENNETH J. THOMSON and LIONEL J. HUBBARD

Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Newcastle upon Tyne NEI 7RU Great Britain

Summary

Results are reported from using an existing model of the CAP to analyse the dairy quota scheme introduced by the European Community in April 1984. Modifications to the model for this purpose include the use of quota-equivalent prices to capture the effect of dairy quotas on other enterprises within the agricultural sector. The quota policy is contrasted with a reference policy chosen to represent the continued evolution of pre-1984 policy. Results are presented for the three years 1984, 1985 and 1988. Constraining milk production causes the Community to become more self-sufficient in cereals, but slightly less so in livestock products. By 1988, net FEOGA expenditure in the milk sector is estimated to be around 40% less with the quota policy than under the reference policy, though total net FEOGA expenditure is reduced by only half this amount. As would be expected, taxpayers savings are estimated to exceed greatly the loss suffered by dairy producers.


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