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© 1985 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics

other

The effect of changes in prices and quotas: An example of the use of an agricultural sector model based on the Johansen Approach

KNUD JORGEN MUNK*

Institute of Economics, University of Aarhus Denmark

Summary

The consequences for agricultural income and production of price and quota changes are calculated using an agricultural sector model for the EC as a whole. The model uses the Johansen solution method which makes it possible to avoid making unrealistic separability assumptions between inputs and outputs. The model is used to calculate the lump sum payment and the decrease in the milk price which corresponds to a reduction in the sales of milk by 5% using quota regulation. The model is also used to provide a tentative forecast for the evolution of agricultural production and income during the period 1982–1987. The results seem to suggest that agricultural production and income will increase significantly over the forecasting period even with a ‘prudent’ price policy.


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