© 1984 Oxford University Press and the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics
research-article |
Dynamic relationships of rice import prices in Europe*
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University U.S.A.
2Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin U.S.A.
3National Economics Division, Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture
Received December 1, 1983;
Summary
Dynamic relationships among weekly prices at Rotterdam, Netherlands, of rice imported into Europe from the United States, Thailand, and Argentina are analysed. A theoretical model of price determination is developed to explain the hypothesised direction of dynamic influences. Causality tests among price series are performed. Dynamics of price relationships are then analysed using dynamic multipliers. Argentinian and United States prices move together. These two prices respond quickly (one to two weeks) to changes in Thai prices. Thai prices react slowly (10 to 20 weeks) to changes in Argentinian and United States prices. All prices are inefficient in processing information reflected in their own past prices and in the other price series. The analysis indicates that the degree of inefficiency is low.